Welcome to The Integrity Ledger — liquidity is creeping back into markets, central banks are breaking from old playbooks, and the risks hiding beneath the rally are getting harder to ignore.
Market commodities
Nasdaq | 23,222.59 | ▲ 0.94% |
S&P 500 | 6,822.86 | ▲ 0.72% |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | 88,345.05 | ▲ 3.39% |
Gold | 4,378.40 | ▲ 0.63% |
Dow Jones | 48,211.89 | ▲ 0.54% |
Ethereum | 2,974.71 | ▲ 5.25% |
Tether | 1.00 | ▼ 0.00% |
Binance Coin | 849.99 | ▲ 2.53% |
Solana | 126.10 | ▲ 5.46% |
Finance & Markets
Federal Reserve Restarts QE with $40 Billion Treasury Purchases
In December 2025, the Federal Reserve ended its largest balance-sheet reduction by initiating $40 billion in Treasury purchases, marking a return to quantitative easing after $2.4 trillion in asset runoff since 2022. This move aims to maintain ample reserves amid persistent 3 percent inflation and rising federal borrowing costs exceeding $1 trillion annually. The policy shift seeks to stabilize short-term rates without cutting the federal funds rate directly.
The renewed QE is expected to lower short-term borrowing costs and support financial market liquidity, potentially boosting equity valuations. However, with inflation still above target, this easing raises risks of prolonged price pressures and complicates the Fed’s inflation control efforts. Investors should monitor bond yields and inflation expectations as this policy evolution unfolds in 2026.
Global Markets Rise After Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to 30-Year High
Global shares advanced Friday following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Japan's Nikkei 225 led gains in Asia with a 1% rise as the 10-year government bond yield topped 2% for the first time since 2006. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen amid easing U.S. inflation data, which also supported optimism for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The BOJ's rate hike signals a gradual normalization of monetary policy in Japan, influencing bond yields and currency markets. Investors should monitor how sustained inflation trends and central bank policies globally shape asset valuations and cross-border capital flows in the coming quarters.
Business & Investments
Presidio and EQV Ventures Announce Post-Merger Board Composition
Presidio Investment Holdings and EQV Ventures Acquisition Corp. announced their combined company's nine-member board following their business combination. The new entity, to be renamed Presidio Production Company with NYSE ticker "FTW," will focus on optimizing mature oil and gas assets in the US. Key board members include industry veterans Daniel C. Herz, Jerry Schretter, Jeffrey S. Serota, Jimmy E. Vallee, and Ray N. Walker Jr.
The experienced board brings deep operational, financial, and strategic expertise critical to Presidio's transition to public markets and its vision for sustainable value creation in mature energy assets. With a focus on low-decline production and dividend generation, this leadership team aims to position Presidio as a leading dividend-focused energy producer.
Crypto & Fintech
Investor Concerns Over Quantum Computing Risk Pressure Bitcoin Price
Investor anxiety over the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is dampening its price and capital inflows, industry executives report. While Bitcoin co-founder Adam Back asserts quantum risks are decades away and unlikely to compromise Bitcoin's security core, some investors and analysts criticize developers for dismissing these concerns. This divergence is slowing capital flow and prompting larger holders to diversify amid uncertain quantum computing developments accelerated by AI.
The debate highlights the need for clear communication and contingency planning to reassure investors and sustain confidence in Bitcoin. Should quantum computing threats materialize faster than expected, preparedness will be critical to mitigate asset devaluation and maintain network security.
Mercury Applies for OCC National Bank Charter to Scale Banking
Mercury, a fintech serving over 200,000 companies, has applied to the OCC for a national bank charter and the FDIC for federal deposit insurance, marking a key milestone in its growth. The profitable company, generating $650 million in annualized revenue with three years of GAAP profitability, aims to combine its software-driven platform with the stability of a regulated bank.
Obtaining a national bank charter will strengthen Mercury's regulatory oversight and customer trust while enabling product innovation at scale. This move positions Mercury to offer enhanced financial services with increased stability, appealing to startups and small businesses seeking integrated fintech solutions.
Emerging Tech & Ethics
EMJX Integrates OpenAI LLMs to Enhance Digital Asset Treasury System
EMJ Crypto Technologies is upgrading its Gen2 digital-asset treasury operating system by integrating OpenAI's latest large language models (LLMs) to improve research workflows and risk-management decision support. The enhancements leverage OpenAI’s models within EMJX's proprietary QAM Engine and Gen2 DAT architecture to refine market data synthesis, scenario stress testing, and portfolio risk controls across bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
By embedding advanced LLMs, EMJX aims to accelerate information processing and strategy adaptation while maintaining rigorous quantitative risk controls and human oversight. This integration could set new standards for digital treasury management, enabling more dynamic volatility modeling and improved multi-asset allocation amid evolving market conditions.
Denmark Blames Russia for Cyberattack on Water Utility
Danish intelligence attributes recent destructive cyberattacks on national critical infrastructure to Russian state-backed groups Z-Pentest and NoName057(16). These operations, part of Russia's broader hybrid warfare, targeted water utilities and aimed to disrupt elections ahead of Denmark's 2025 vote. Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service highlighted these actions as efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
The revelation underscores escalating risks of hybrid cyber warfare targeting critical infrastructure in Europe. Danish authorities are intensifying diplomatic pressure on Russia while reinforcing cybersecurity defenses ahead of future elections. The joint advisory from international agencies signals coordinated global vigilance against pro-Russian hacktivist threats.
Forensic Lens
Money Trails
Conagra Brands Inc. reported a 6.8% decline in second-quarter net sales to $3.0 billion for fiscal 2026, driven by a 3.0% drop in organic net sales and a 3.9% impact from M&A. The company recorded a net loss of $664 million, or $1.39 per diluted share, primarily due to $968 million in non-cash goodwill and brand impairment charges. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $0.45. Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic net sales growth between (1)% and 1%, an adjusted operating margin of approximately 11.0% to 11.5%, and adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85.
The impairment charges and challenging consumer environment pressured the company’s profitability, although underlying momentum in key snack categories offers a platform for recovery. Investors should monitor the company’s ability to manage elevated inflation and tariff-related costs, as well as the effectiveness of its innovation and merchandising investments in the second half. Maintaining disciplined cost controls and supply chain resilience will be critical to achieving the reaffirmed fiscal guidance.
Corruption & Governance
The Supreme Court on December 19, 2025, rejected suspended Punjab Police DIG Harcharan Singh Bhullar's plea seeking a stay on the CBI investigation into two FIRs involving disproportionate assets and bribery allegations. The top court noted the Punjab and Haryana High Court was already hearing a similar plea and dismissed Bhullar’s petition, which he then withdrew to continue his legal challenge in the high court. Bhullar was arrested on October 16, 2025, after the CBI recovered ₹5 crore in cash, luxury items, firearms, and other valuables from his residence linked to a bribery case.
The Supreme Court's decision allows the CBI investigation to proceed without interruption, signaling judicial support for the agency’s probe despite jurisdictional objections. This sets a precedent reinforcing the CBI’s authority in cases where state consent is contested, emphasizing scrutiny of corruption in senior police ranks. Legal professionals and public officials will closely monitor the ongoing hearings at the Punjab and Haryana High Court.
Fraud Watch
Federal prosecutors have charged six more individuals in Minnesota’s expansive public assistance fraud case, bringing the total accused to over 90. The indictments target schemes involving housing stabilization and autism services, with alleged losses potentially reaching billions due to widespread abuse across multiple Medicaid programs.
The scale of fraud exposes significant vulnerabilities in Minnesota’s social assistance programs, highlighting urgent needs for stronger oversight and fraud prevention. State officials have pledged tighter controls and cooperation with federal partners, but political tensions and community impact remain critical challenges going forward.
Global Integrity Outlook
Global
President Trump’s blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers off the coast is raising legal concerns and risks escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions. Experts warn the blockade could provoke military retaliation from Venezuela and may lack proper congressional authorization, potentially breaching international law. This move is part of an ongoing U.S. campaign against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, accused of narcoterrorism and using oil profits to fund drug trafficking.
US
The Justice Department must release files on Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking investigation by Friday, following a bipartisan bill signed by Trump that allows redactions only to protect victims or ongoing probes. The records may reveal details about Epstein’s ties to powerful figures, addressing long-standing public and victims’ demands.
Middle East
Iranian boxer Mohammad Javad Vafaei-Sani, sentenced to death for alleged ties with the banned MEK group, faces imminent execution after Iran's Supreme Court rejected his retrial request. Rights groups and sports figures, including Martina Navratilova, condemned the sentence amid Iran's intensified crackdown with over 1,426 executions in 2023. His mother was granted a rare prison visit, signaling a likely impending execution.
Latin America
The Trump administration’s blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers has sparked legal debates and fears of escalating U.S.-Venezuela conflict. While the White House defends the measure as targeted and legal, experts warn it risks provoking military retaliation from Nicolás Maduro’s government, potentially deepening U.S. involvement in the region.
Asia
Adani Group plans to invest Rs 1 lakh crore in its airports over the next five years, anticipating 15-16% annual growth in India's aviation sector. The Navi Mumbai International Airport, developed with a 74% stake by Adani, will launch operations on December 25, initially handling 20 million passengers annually. This investment aims to ease capacity constraints and boost long-term regional air traffic expansion.
Quick Bits / Short Reads
The ECB's Philip Lane signals the ECB's hold at 2.00% as "neutral" despite sticky inflation around 3% in services and stagnant eurozone GDP growth projected at about 1.2-1.4% through 2027 amid fractured global trade. — Forex Live
Carnival Corporation & plc posts record full year 2025 adjusted net income of $3.1 billion, up over 60%, with $26.6 billion in revenues and reinstates dividend, while forecasting 2026 adjusted net income of $3.5 billion with continued yield growth. — Benzinga
Today marks the largest stock market options expiry ever, with $7.1 trillion notional exposure set to expire, concentrated around S&P 500 futures near 6800, prompting potential market pinning and watch for uneven selling among mega-cap AI stocks like Nvidia. — Forex Live
The Nasdaq climbs 1% led by AI-related stocks Oracle (+7%), Sandisk (+6.5%), Micron (+5.7%), and AMD (+4.3%), while cruise stocks surge after Carnival's strong results, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rises to 52.9 in December, indicating improving consumer confidence. — The Street
Winnebago Industries reports Q1 Fiscal 2026 net revenues up 12.3% to $702.7 million and adjusted EBITDA doubling to $30.2 million, raising full-year 2026 earnings guidance with adjusted EPS expected between $2.10 and $2.80. — Globe News Wire
Track Group reports FY25 revenue decline to $35.2 million, a 5% drop, but improves operating income to $1.2 million from a loss, and raises FY26 revenue outlook to $38–39 million with adjusted EBITDA margin expected between 18% and 19%. — Benzinga
Rithm Capital completes acquisition of Paramount Group, acquiring 17 office assets totaling 13.1 million square feet in New York and San Francisco to strengthen its commercial real estate platform. — Business Wire
Stay sharp, stay ethical, and keep following the money.
— The Integrity Ledger Team